Millions of people Islamic Relief supports around the world are already being pushed deeper into hunger and poverty by the El Niño climate phenomenon, Islamic Relief warns as world leaders meet in Türkiye at COP31, the annual global climate summit.

This year’s El Niño is already the strongest in four decades, with some studies predicting it to be the worst in a thousand years. The El Niño phenomenon occurs every few years when a vast stretch of the Pacific Ocean heats up more than usual, disrupting weather patterns all over the world and creating extreme droughts and floods.

The United Nations estimates that 50 million people globally could be plunged into hunger over the next six to nine months, as crops are destroyed and food prices rise. But Islamic Relief teams report people are already being affected.

• In Indonesia’s West Nusa Tenggara Province communities have already suffered crop failures after a more severe dry season than usual. Nine regencies and cities in the province are already on emergency alert due to a severe shortage of clean water, and wildfires have become increasingly frequent, with air pollution making children sick. This month’s rainfall forecasts are 40–50% lower than usual, so the situation is expected to worsen further in the coming weeks.
• In Sudan, El Niño is causing an unusually dry few months, causing crops to die at a time when over 30 million people need humanitarian assistance after three and a half years of conflict. El Niño comes at a time when agricultural inputs such as fertilisers and fuel are in short supply and prohibitively expensive due to the disruption in global supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. In Red Sea State in eastern Sudan, a recent assessment found 75% of surveyed households cited poor rainfall as their main agricultural constraint.
• Somalia has been predicted to get extremely heavy rainfall in the coming months. Due to rains in Ethiopia, Somalia’s Shabelle river has already crossed its high flood risk threshold, with water levels at Jowhar rising 2.22 metres in one week. Islamic Relief predicts floods could displace half a million people in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgoye districts, and cause crops to fail. Malnutrition is already rising in a country where 26% of the population already face crisis levels.

These impacts are expected to massively increase over the next few months as the impact of El Niño intensifies, affecting dozens of countries all over the world.

At the COP31 climate conference in Türkiye, Islamic Relief is calling for urgent action to save lives and livelihoods. Research shows that timely action to help communities prepare and mitigate the impacts not only saves lives but is more cost effective than providing emergency aid after the disaster peaks.

Jamie Williams, Senior Policy Advisor at Islamic Relief Worldwide, said:

“COP climate summits have always been full of talk, but action is needed more urgently than ever. The last decade has been the hottest on record. As extreme weather increases as a result, livelihoods and food security becomes more threatened for people already challenged by poverty, conflict and displacement.

“The El Niño event we are currently witnessing is building up to be the largest in at least 1,000 years. For people in Asia and Africa, El Niño will bring either too little rain or too much rain. This can lead to droughts, floods, crop losses, water shortages, disease outbreaks and rising food prices. El Niño also brings increased heat, affecting agriculture and outside livelihoods, and people’s health, especially in cities. And it is the poorest people who are the most vulnerable.

“The El Niño comes on top of the climate crisis. This is caused by pollution from fossil fuels which must be phased out as previous COPs have agreed, and rapidly. At the same time, promised funding from the rich countries must reach the most vulnerable and marginalised people so they can adapt to this new world.”

Islamic Relief is calling for governments to increase funding that helps communities adapt to climate change. Developing countries need $310–365 billion a year for adaptation by 2035, yet international public adaptation finance has fallen in recent years and is less than 10% of the total needed.

Most financing is given in the form of loans rather than grants, trapping the countries worst affected by the climate crisis in long-term debt. Islamic Relief is calling for new funding to be provided as grants and non-debt financing.

Finance must reach communities and its use must be decided by local people. Adaptation is most effective when it is locally led, as the people suffering the impacts know best their situation and what is needed. Marginalised groups such as women, youth, people with disabilities and the displaced, are often sidelined but must be at the heart of decisions on climate adaptation. 

Climate finance must also be more equitably allocated, as the people who are most at risk are currently getting the least support. In recent years, the most fragile states which are most vulnerable to climate crises received the equivalent of $2 -$10 per person from the main climate funds, compared to $162 per person for more stable countries.

While El Niño is expected to impact people across all continents, the poorest communities in parts of Africa and Asia will be worst affected. In East Africa, Islamic Relief expects droughts and floods to destroy crops and livelihoods, triggering severe risk of increased acute malnutrition across the region, especially in Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan. The African Development Bank estimates that El Niño will cost African nations US$10-20 billion in economic damage. Drought and extreme heat is already effecting South East Asia, causing crop failures and air pollution caused by massive wildfires. El Niño is occurring at a time when safety nets for vulnerable people around the world have been weakened by funding cuts.

Islamic Relief is supporting people effected to prepare for weather shocks and El Niño around the world. In Somalia, Islamic Relief is working with farmers to increase their resistance to climate breakdown – such as by improving greenhouses, irrigation and community knowledge sharing to increase crop production – and supporting internally displaced people who have been forced to leave their land. In Ethiopia Islamic Relief is providing water services to improve nutrition, and in Indonesia Islamic Relief is providing vulnerable families with cash grants to help protect food security.